The “Next” Pandemic : How States Can Avert It.

Posted on July 10, 2020 by Nicholas Robinson

The “next” pandemic in the USA is not a question of “if” but of “when.” Just as States scramble to win or shore up their victories against  COVID-19, a second front appears. Can the USA win a two-front war with microbes?

Two parallel infections now afflict separately humans and pigs. A new strain of the H1N1 swine flu virus, which killed 285,000 people when it merged in 2009, is now spreading among humans working on pig farms in China. The National Academy of Science reported this new threat in June  ( https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117). How can the risks to humans from this new virus, G4 EA H1N1, be contained? This human infection is emerging at the same time that  the world experiences the raging animal pandemic of African swine fever virus (AFS). AFS is forcing Asians to kill their domestic pig herds. AFS is now in 17 European nations and threatens to spread across all continents. No one knows now how to contain the AFS Pandemic among animals.

Once early surveillance detects such threats, what  precautions are essential to avert the “next” pandemic? Much is at stake. Since February 18, 2020, when ACOEL published its first Blog on COVID-19, (at http://www.acoel.org/post/2020/02/18/CORONAVIRUS-We-Thought-We-Knew-Ye!-The-Wuhan-Potential-Pandemic.aspx ), the virus SARS-CoV-2  has stolen lives and livelihoods. Its impact has vastly exceeded that of the costly HIV-1/AIDs pandemic, or the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. 

Like the plague, these diseases, along with SARS, EBOLA or West Nile virus, are the result of infections  that spill over from the wild animal kingdom, transmitting disease to  humans. This is known as zoonosis. HIV-1/AIDS came from primates in Africa, and since 1983 has killed 38 million humans, and currently sickens 36.9 million persons.  When COVID-19 first appeared, it was thought to have come via Pangolins, but now is linked to bats (Rhinolophus), which live in habitats across SE Asia and China. Earth holds perhaps 700,000 different viruses, most not yet discovered.  Of the 335 human diseases identified between 1960 and 2004, 61% are of zoonotic origin, and 72 % of all recent diseases are zoonotic.

The frequency of human infections from zoonotic diseases is increasing. Illnesses like Denge, chikungunya, or Zika have shown up in the Americas, and will be joined by others in the future. In 1999, West Nile virus, transmitted to humans by mosquitoes, made its first appearance in the Western Hemisphere in New York, after a drought followed by heavy rains. Since then, over 1,600 people have died of the disease.

Simultaneously while coping with COVID-19, it is evident that governments need to organize to avert a new zoonotic infections. Some are already here, others are coming. For example, Lyme Disease is a continuing threat. Other novel microbes can arrive quickly. Locally infected people travel, and airplanes bring the diseases to distant lands. It took months for rats to bring Bubonic Plague, the medieval “Black Death,” to Europe on sailing ships. Today a virus jumps continents in a few hours. As the economy restarts after COVID-19, governments will need new regimes of phyto-sanitary measures for trade, transportation, and tourism. 

Zoonotic diseases are on the rise for several reasons. Escalating declines in  biodiversity are the root cause. Biodiversity loss is a health risk multiplier.  As populations of species thin, many to the point of extinction, the viruses and bacteria that they host spread out looking for new hosts. Deforestation, and other unsustainable developments, disrupt habitats for many species, which in turn shed their viruses. A zoonotic disease, whether bacteria like Lyme Disease, or a novel coronavirus like SARS, then finds new animal hosts, including eventually human beings. Building new roads or suburban subdivisions fragment the landscape,  severs  migration corridors, and disrupt ecosystems, thereby exposing more humans to zoonotic microbes. Since humans interface with these disturbed natural  habitats,  their likelihood of being infected increases. 

Climate Change impacts are exacerbating biodiversity loss and augment humanity’s interface with zoonotic infections. Extreme weather events cause a cascade of other effects that influence disease. Heat and droughts create dry conditions, providing fuel for forest fires that end up fragmenting forests and driving wildlife closer to humans. Increased rainfall and humidity provide favorable conditions for mosquitoes to breed and for adult mosquitoes to survive.

If society waits for hospitals and health departments to cope with a zoonotic disease, it is too late. The most effective way to prevent or minimize zoonotic spillovers from animals to humans is to keep all animals healthy. Doing so requires greater attention to veterinary science and the health of domesticated animals and agriculture.  For environmental law, it means enhancing nature conservation programs that sustain ecosystem health, everywhere. We reduce the likelihood of zoonotic spillovers by sustaining resilient ecosystems in wetlands, in suburbs, in rural countryside, as well as in parks and wilderness. 

An inter-agency, or “whole of government” collaboration, is required. Such collaboration runs against the grain. We promote agriculture as commerce, with insufficient attention to veterinary health of farmed  animals. The pandemic of AFS has destroyed the pork industry in China and impacts food supplies worldwide. Animal health is treated apart from human health. Humans and animals exchange TB, zoonotic tuberculosis. Developed economies tend to forget that the well-being of all plants, animals and humans is intrinsically connected, and profoundly affect by human activity. The reality is that there is only “One Health.”

The World Health Organization (WHO) and Food & Agricultural Organization (FAO) endorse a “One Health” approach. The US Centers for Disease Control does too. Consensus favoring a “One Heath” approach has grown, but has been too marginal to make much of a difference. The  Wildlife Conservation Society and German government’s  2019 “Berlin Principles,”  or the 2017 UN Environment Assembly recommendations, and proposals from the EcoHealth Alliance, have all proposed  the “One Health” approach as essential to successfully manage risks of zoonosis.

To date, however, none of the “One Health” advocates  translate this policy construct  into meaningful action. At most they urge that veterinarians and public health  agencies should cooperate. In truth, cooperation between veterinarians, public health agencies, and nature conservation authorities, whether locally or globally through the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), today does not exist. All these entities largely ignore the tools that environmental law offers to effectuate the “One Health” approach.

To avert the spillover of viruses or bacteria from wild animals, it is essential to keep natural habitats healthy.  At the outset, “One Health” should formally recognize the conservation of wild nature as its foundation. Conservation is too often discounted or deemed merely an amenity. Yet if governments at all levels fail to maintain healthy wild habitats, they invite spillovers of virus and bacteria seeking human hosts. Human incursions are increasing disrupting habitat in the forests of Africa, Southeast Asia the Amazon, or the woods of suburban North America. Disease spillovers increase in turn.

Sustaining biodiversity requires maintaining intact and functional ecosystems. These are the fundamental infrastructure for all of life, our health and our socio-economic well-being. Stemming current losses in biodiversity is the front line for protecting human health. Governments need to mainline biodiversity conservation to manage zoonotic disease risks.  

Virtually all governments neglect these tasks. Government budgets reflect an ignorance about the measures that prevent zoonotic spillovers. Budgets invariably assign to Departments of Health more than twice the resources provided for nature conservation and they allocate exponentially more when funding  military or police security.  COVID-19 reveals the folly of this imbalance.  Zoonotic diseases are non-traditional security threats, causing incalculable human and economic loss. The upshot: “Pay me now or pay me later.”

To avert the “next” pandemic, governments can deploy  a number of environmental laws to implement  a “One Health” approach. Environmental laws provide a suite of policies and best practices exists to avert the “next” pandemic. Given what COVID-19 has taught us, there is some urgency in deploying these tools. Would it not be irresponsible to fail to do so?” Will we? The war on COVID-19 has so far precluded debate about preparing to avert the “next” pandemic.  We face  the risk of “business as usual,” and choosing not to learn, as happened after the experience of SARS in 2003-2004. 

Since the “next” zoonotic spillover is underway, it is essential to actively manage the interface between humans and animals. Surveillance of emerging diseases requires collecting data constantly, as a priority. To ensure that warnings from this surveillance are  acted upon,  each level of government needs to provide a strategic, high level coordinating council or executive body to oversee these efforts. Many governments do so now (See the 2019 Trilateral Guidance by WHO, FAO, OiE, at http://www.fao.org/3/ca2942en/ca2942en.pdf).  The USA briefly had such a strategic unit, begun after the Ebola crisis by the Obama Administration. The White House Directorate for Global Heath and Security in the National Security Council addressed these non-traditional security issues.  President Trump discontinued this unit. While the President’s Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) could be tasked with these coordinating roles, CEQ’s weakened capacity means that Congress and future Presidents will need to do even more in order to coordinate all federal agencies to protect domestic health. 

Every State government should have a gubernatorial body to prepare for and coordinate zoonotic risk management. Such bodies exist already in some cases. For example, New York State can and should activate the Governor’s Council of Environmental Advisors, as is authorized under Article 7 of the Environmental Conservation Law. A statutory body is needed to prevent a future executive from neglecting this strategic cockpit for “One Health.” Where no such authority exists, the legislature should provide for one.  

A top priority for any executive coordinating body will be to address how to manage zoonotic risks while addressing the impacts climate change. For example, New York’s Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act of June 2019 provides tools that could be used to provide “One Heath” safeguards. In §75-0109 of the Environmental Conservation Law, this Act provides for off-setting carbon emissions through extending forests and other ecosystems to enhance the photosynthesis that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The same healthy habitats serve to avert zoonosis spillover. 

The same Act amended New York State’s Community Risk And Resilience Act in ways that directly also could be deployed to protect against zoonotic diseases.  § 17-A mandates that the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC)  address impacts on public health and species and to identify the most ”significant climate-related risks,” along with measures to mitigate those risks. § 17-B requires applicants for all permits to identify physical climate-risks and how to handle them and authorizes DEC to mandate mitigation measures. Increased disease spillovers are climate risks. 

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is another readily available tool. The data from environmental assessments can be harvested to identify zoonotic risks. Although President Trump is currently seeking to limit the role of the National Environmental Policy Act, the NEPA Regulations can and should address potential environmental impacts from zoonotic risks. Half the States also have their “little NEPAs” and assess zoonotic risks. The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the New York State Environmental Quality Review Act (SEQRA) are prime examples. They require all state and local governmental agencies to make a holistic evaluation of potential environmental impacts and risks. EIA effectively enables a “One Health” approach. Beyond collecting data on ecological zoonotic risks, EIA can identify options for sustaining health of ecosystems to contain spillovers of bacteria and viruses, identify the cumulative impacts exacerbating biodiversity loss, and identify how to fragmentation of intact ecosystems and restore migration corridors for species.

State building codes also serve a role to contain the spread of viruses within buildings.  Codes can be revised to mandate “healthy buildings.” For example, ventilation and filtration systems should be retrofitted to reduce risk of airborne exposures to communicable diseases. See Joseph G. Allen and Joseph D. Macomber, Healthy Buildings: How Indoor Spaces Drive Performance and Productivity (Harvard University Press, 2020).  

Ultimately, “One Health” is all about sustaining biodiversity. The federal systems of National Parks, Wildlife Refuges and National Forests provide opportunities to enhance stewardship of natural areas. State park systems, and state wetlands laws, do the same. Zoning and land use laws at the state and local level also can provide for care of natural systems to manage zoonotic risks. Municipal land use laws can provide, for example, for migration corridors through overlay zones, or obliging property owners to control mosquito breeding, all to minimize infection risks. When ecological habitats remain undisturbed, the bacteria and viruses in wild nature tend to remain relatively stable in their natural hosts, which dilutes the chances of spillovers to humans.

Finally, the federal government and the states can establish and enhance phyto-sanitary safeguards for their agricultural sectors, and control animal products  imported into or through the states. Since 1947, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has respected the rights of countries to impose such safeguards. California has done so for many years to protect its agricultural sector. Theses phyto-sanitary norms need to be expanded robustly to address zoonotic risks. Precautions to prevent microbes entering in our airports and at State borders can be established.   

Once a “One Health” approach is made operational, many state agencies will discover how they help  avert the “next” pandemic. There are key roles for agencies regulating agriculture, produce markets, public health, environmental protection, forestry, wildlife conservation, transportation, and other State agencies are key parts of the “One Health” approach. States have substantial expertise in their universities, organizations like the Wildlife Conservation Society, as well as across their public health sectors. Each state and local agency needs to undertake continuous biodiversity-related heath surveillance in order to detect and manage emerging zoonotic disease spillovers to avert health emergencies. Each can be alert to end habitat fragmentation, and can provide buffer zones that manage disease-risk from human interfaces with animals in shared ecosystems.

Even in the middle of this COVID-19 Pandemic, governments need to be building back better, to be anticipating and preparing for the “next” pandemic. As Ben Franklin said in 1736, “An Ounce of Prevention Is Worth A Pound of Cure.” States cannot wait for Washington, D.C. They each must build their own resilience. Leadership from the States can pilot the nation toward the security of “One Health.”

The Future Is As We Now See It – Environmental Development Resiliency and Disaster Planning

Posted on June 17, 2020 by Kevin Murray

Successful real estate developers and development attorneys must effectively anticipate and manage risk. Management of visible and known risks seem simple; what separates the great from the good is the ability to anticipate, plan for, and develop contingencies for unknown risk scenarios. I have previously written about the importance of resilient development planning for extreme weather conditions and regional/national disasters. It is clear that extreme weather events affect the way we live and must be taken into consideration if we are to plan and develop our environmentally sustainable and resilient communities. Pandemic planning now finds itself a critical part of disaster planning and is likely to have a profound and lasting influence on environmental resiliency.

These environmental conditions affect physical, transactional, and legal aspects of real estate. Physical impacts appear as structural, corporeal, or earthly damages or modifications. Physical impacts present very real safety risks to site occupants such as failing structures and, exposure to life- threatening elements and hazardous substances. The recent pandemic has highlighted what was a subset of physical impacts, that is the health of the occupants as they live, work and occupy spaces.

Over the course of recent decades, mixed use developments became extremely popular with developers, municipal jurisdictions, and users. The notion of sustainable walkable communities has seen a proliferation of “self-contained communities” to support the growing desire for a more compact lifestyle where living, work and recreation coexist. The COVID Pandemic will result in the development of new regulation and a fresh look at development as a whole, but clearly with self-contained walkable communities and mixed use. Especially where users live on top of the commercial, retail, restaurant and recreational spaces they frequent.

Energy efficiency through sealed buildings had already begun to fade, air flow and fresh sources of filtered air will see increased interest and likely regulatory focus. The need to regulate how people congregate and the general flow through space may take on a regulatory aspect. Occupancy limits already exist for general safety, perhaps viral exposure may now factor into those calculations, and the imposition of formal requirements for table and general distancing in floor space. A demand for (and likely regulatory requirements), may extend into amenities that feature no touch surfaces, doors, toilets, sinks, retail checkout, retail goods selection, shelving, clothing racks, elevators, windows. Internet orders and drive up pickup may see a continued demand for convenience and safety. Ever-present hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes will become required and as common place as a box of tissue.

The importance of all this however is to note that management of risk means mitigation. The traditional legal defenses like force majeure and impractability continue to erode in favor of reasonable foreseeability of extreme events. Successful developers and their attorneys will plan for these contingencies both to protect their uses and themselves in an ever changing regulatory environment. Proper engineering and design are necessary to protect the people that live and work in these communities and the companies and contractors that establish them. Resilient real estate development must adapt and engineer buildings and communities sustainable under foreseeable extreme conditions.

NASA Satellite Data May Provide A Glimpse into the Future

Posted on May 12, 2020 by Todd E. Palmer

NASA's Earth Observing System Project gathers data from a fleet of satellites orbiting the planet.  This system of satellites is playing an increasingly important role in measuring air pollution and informing regulatory policy on a global scale. Dr. Tracey Halloway at the University of Wisconsin – Madison leads the NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (HAQST) which is doing extensive research in this area.   HAQST is staffed by air quality and public health scientists from government offices and universities across the country. Their wide-ranging projects include measuring and tracking global pollution levels, climate change indicators, and regional haze.  HAQST has created a website summarizing available satellite resources which can be accessed by stakeholders and the general public for making better informed air pollution policy decisions. I encourage those of you with an interest in this area to explore the research being undertaken by this group.

Most recently, NASA released satellite data documenting the dramatic reduction in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions measured in the United States since shelter-in-place orders went into effect to quell the COVID-19 pandemic.  This data was collected from instruments on NASA's Aura and the European Space Agency's Sentinel-5 satellites. NASA has compared the average levels of ambient NO2 experienced in the United States between March 2015 through 2019 with those experienced in March 2020.  The comparison is striking:

These reductions, ranging from 30% to 50%, correlate with the significant decline in the combustion of fossil fuels during the pandemic, primary in mobile sources. Similar reductions where observed in China when it cracked down on combustion sources in advance of the 2008 Olympics.  This data provides a glimpse into what might be achieved if the United States were to adopt more aggressive policies encouraging alternative fueled vehicles and expanded renewable energy generation. However, the dire financial impacts associated with these reductions must also be considered as we contemplate the implications of the emission data gathered during this unusual situation. 

What Judges Are Saying About Climate Science

Posted on May 4, 2020 by Scott Fulton

It’s amazing how quickly humanity’s concern can shift when circumstanc­es demand it, and the coronavirus pandemic has riveted our attention. In this hour, talking about anything else risks seeming detached or indifferent to the enormous suffering, disruption, and dislocation that the COVID-19 vi­rus has unleashed on the world. But I need to alert you to a new ELI report analyzing the other major challenge that will be waiting for us on the other side of our current crisis, one that, like the pandemic, is deeply informed by science.

Climate Science in the Courts: A Review of U.S. and International Ju­dicial Pronouncements” looks at the question of judges’ treatment of the basics of climate science. We had noticed that even in cases like the 9th Circuit’s recent decision in Juliana, where the court tossed the case out on standing grounds, essentially defer­ring to Congress to solve the climate problem, the judges expressed rather grave concerns about the climate phe­nomenon.

Similarly, in the City of Oakland case, U.S. District Judge William Alsup, while dismissing the case on political-question grounds, likewise reflected deep concern about the implications of inaction in the face of climate science. This led us to wonder whether judicial concern about climate change had become a consistent thread in case dispositions, whether this reflected broader embrace of the basic science at issue, and, if so, whether judicial acceptance of the science should be more influential in the public debate.

With material and moral support from the ELI Board, we commissioned a review that considered these ques­tions. “Climate Science in the Courts” answers the two questions posed above rather definitively. With remark­able consistency, in the time since the 2007 Supreme Court decision in Mas­sachusetts v. EPA, federal courts in the United States — and for that matter foreign courts — have been treating as valid and authoritative the science that says that the climate is warming and that human activity is driving the observed and anticipated change.

According to the report, despite the fact that advocates and courts have had the opportunity to entertain or advance skeptics’ views challenging these climate science basics, there have been very few instances in which skeptics’ arguments have been made in court and not a single instance in this time horizon in which a court has given credence to such arguments. Rather, the judicial pronouncements since Massachusetts have consistently treated basic climate science as being beyond reasonable dispute.

This judicial acceptance of basic climate science has not necessar­ily translated into intervention by the courts. Indeed, at least in the United States, particularly at the appellate level, the judiciary has been reticent, largely deferring to the representative branches of government to bring for­ward solutions.

But should judicial views on climate science be more influential in the pub­lic conversation? This report posits that the answer to this question should be “yes.” The courts remain among the most respected of public institutions and operate in a setting that demands fidelity to facts and truth, and where there is meaningful accountability for veracity. If, in this setting, conclusions about climate science are being ren­dered, this should be important to the public debate for two main reasons.

First, ideas that have secured no traction in court should presumably be less deserving of credit in the public realm; conversely, conclusions consis­tently derived by the part of our institu­tional structure charged to crunch truth should be deserving of considerable weight. Indeed, greater understand­ing of judicial treatment of climate science might move public thought to align more fully with considered judicial views.

Second, U.S. courts, while alarmed by what the science is saying, have largely been deferential to the rep­resentative branches of government for purposes of fashioning solutions. Greater understanding of how the courts are evaluating climate facts might help break political logjams and overcome misconceptions or misrepre­sentations that impede the sense of ur­gency needed for the very political solu­tions for which the courts are waiting.

Science is of course playing a major role in the sorting of the issue most immediately before us — the coronavi­rus pandemic. And we are seeing broad societal acceptance of fairly dramatic changes based on what the data are telling us about the COVID-19 threat. It will be interesting to see whether this experience will leave society any better able to come together around climate science. The courts are already there it seems.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics: How the COVID-19 Crisis Highlights Our Misuse of Data

Posted on April 17, 2020 by Jonathan Ettinger

As I was reading the latest statistics regarding the spread of COVID-19, I became frustrated.  My frustration stemmed not just from the fact that we are unprepared despite repeated warnings, but also from the way our elected officials and their teams present (and the media reports) the data.  Having practiced environmental law for over thirty years and observed countless instances of data misuse and misinterpretation, I am not surprised, but I am disappointed.

I am not talking about the inherent unreliability of the data due to selective and inconsistent testing or the fact that we cannot count infected but asymptomatic people.  For a good discussion of that, see Nate Silver’s recent article.  Rather, I am talking about something much simpler: how many people are getting infected and at what ages.  During the early stages of the pandemic, the media were reporting that the virus was unusual because it appeared to afflict not the young or the elderly but the middle-aged.  Then, of course, it became apparent that the elderly were dying at a much higher rate than others (and at a higher rate than those infected with an ordinary flu). 

I then had a discussion with someone who said “Yeah, but it turns out young adults are being infected at a high rate; they are vulnerable, too!”  It was this simple assertion I wished to validate (or invalidate).

But, that was not easy.  Nearly every article on the topic (and most government updates, too) focused on percentages – but the wrong percentages.  It is easy to find statements like the following: “A USA TODAY analysis of data reported by 19 states shows that Americans of all ages seem to be equally susceptible to a coronavirus infection. States are reporting cases in every age range, though people in their 50s have slightly more confirmed cases on average.”  Here is the graph that accompanied it. 

It afflicts everyone roughly equally, right?  Those in their 30s and 40s are as likely to be infected as those in their 70s, right?  WRONG!  These are percentages of total coronavirus cases, not percentages of the population.  There is a fundamental difference between saying 15% of the population between the ages of 30 and 40 are infected and 15% of the total infections are of people in their 30s. 

According to the US Census Bureau, in 2016 there were roughly 323 million people in the United States – 43 million (13.3%) in their 30s and 20 million (6.2%) in their 70s.  If those percentages remain valid today, the graph above shows that those in their 70s are more than twice as likely to become infected as those in their 30s.  Regardless of whether that figure is accurate, it certainly means that one cannot say that “Americans of all ages seem to be equally susceptible to a coronavirus infection.”

How the data are reported makes a big difference.  Let’s get it right.

If You Thought That COVID-19 Was Bad, Try It Mixed With Some PM2.5!

Posted on April 9, 2020 by Seth Jaffe

Last week, I discussed the Administration’s guidance concerning the exercise of its enforcement discretion during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now comes evidence that the guidance may actually be self-defeating.  While the administration is – understandably – trying to cut regulated industries some slack while they are trying to deal with COVID-19, it turns out that exposure to PM2.5 has a significant impact on the COVID-19 death rate.

study released earlier this week by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health concludes that an increase in the ambient PM2.5 concentration of just 1 ug/m3 causes an increase of 15% in the death rate from COVID-19.  And lest you think that the results stem from other factors unique to New York City and other places particularly hard-hit by the virus, the authors took into account all of the obvious confounding factors, including:

"population density, percent of the population ≥65, percent living in poverty, median household income, percent black, percent Hispanic, percent of the adult population with less than a high school education, median house value, percent of owner-occupied housing, population mean BMI (an indicator of obesity), percent ever-smokers, [and] number of hospital beds."

A 15% increase in the COVID-19 death rate for a 1 ug/m3 increase in PM2.5 is an extraordinary result.  At some level, we knew it already, but let me summarize very simply.  PM2.5 is really, really, bad for you.

And so we come back to this administration.  I’ll pass over the enforcement discretion memorandum and focus instead on EPA’s apparent decision not to change the current national ambient air quality standard for PM2.5.  Of course, the current chair of the SAB doesn’t believe in basing NAAQS on epidemiological studies, but for those of us who still believe in science, this study certainly only strengthens the case for reduction in the PM2.5 NAAQS.

Nothing But Blue Skies?

Posted on March 31, 2020 by Robert Uram

As a result of the measures put in place to flatten the curve for the coronavirus pandemic, California is experiencing an unprecedented improvement in air quality. The combination of work from home, layoffs and reduced automobile travel by people sheltering in place has reduced vehicle miles traveled by as much as 70 percent.  Nearly everyone in California is now experiencing good air quality. Nearly everyone in California will wake up to bluer skies and cleaner air so long as the pandemic restrictions remain in place.

Californians have not seen this high level of air quality since before World War II. Even this brief improvement in air quality will help those who suffer from asthma, bronchitis, lung irritation and heart disease. As an added benefit, congestion has been reduced and there will likely be a significant decline in deaths and injuries from accidents. The reduced emissions are also a down payment on emission reductions desperately needed to address climate change.

In medicine, randomized studies are the gold standard for determining the efficacy of a new drug or device. In the air pollution arena, the California Air Resources Board can’t do randomized studies. It can’t order people not to drive so the Board can measure the effects of reduced vehicles miles traveled or substituting electric vehicles for fossil fuel vehicles. Instead, it does computer modeling to estimate these effects. But computer models are meaningless to most people. They can’t read a computer model and see how their lives will be better if they have bluer skies and healthier air. It’s too abstract. The crisis is not only giving the Board valuable information on the actual effects of less vehicle pollution, it is giving millions of people first hand experience of seeing and understanding how much better of their lives will be with less pollution clouding their sky.

What to do? How do we assure that Californians will see blue skies sooner rather than later once the crisis has abated? How do we assure that Californians will step up in the battle against climate change? And, how do we assure California will leap ahead and create jobs to ameliorate the devastating economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

California has roughly 24 million cars. California’s current goal is to have 1.5 million electric vehicles on the road by 2025. My hope is that the millions of Californians who are now experiencing better air quality will push the state to far exceed the current goal. California should place a moratorium on new fossil fuel powered vehicles as soon as possible and provide the regulatory climate and financial support conditions to build millions of electric vehicles here in California without delay. We all should enjoy blue skies and a better economy as soon as possible.

Surprising Solutions for COVID-19 Resource Challenges

Posted on March 30, 2020 by Mary Ellen Ternes

While we are adapting to work at home, zooming happy hours, and learning to live with other virtual interfaces, many of us are wondering what else we can do to help our communities. Currently health care professionals are screaming for personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators. You might help connect means with need.width=

For PPE, Forbes reported last week that a network of 3D printers have been engaged to print PPE including the N95 Mask and DIY Face Mask. See, “Calling All Makers with 3D Printers: Join Critical Mission to Make Face Masks and Shields for 2020 Healthcare Workers,” (Tuesday, March 24, 2020). Hewlett Packard (HP) has posted resources providing software “.STL” 3D printing design files for critical parts to help COVID-19 critical containment efforts (the “.STL” is the file extension created by the computer-aided design (CAD) program used in the 3D modeling process). These 3D “.STL” design files include the 3D printed FDA approved nasal swabs, 3D Printable Face Shield, Budmen Face Shield, Hands-Free 3D-Printed Door Opener and a Mask Adjuster Field Respirator. HP’s website even has a link to help find an HP 3D corporate printing partner. But there are other resources as well. Universities, particularly universities with engineering schools, should have 3D printers these days. These 3D printers should be up to the task of printing N95 masks meeting hospital specifications.

Also, as another example of creative problem solving, Vanderbilt University’s Mechanical Engineering Department and the Vanderbilt University Medical Center teamed up to design an open-source ventilator that can be assembled from locally available materials. This is clever, reliable, but simple technology, with the prototype assembled in three hours, allowing production of 100 ventilators in a single week. That’s 100 ventilators from locally available materials without having to first modify a GM assembly plant. Vanderbilt Mechanical Engineer Kevin Galloway says the goal is to “make the design publicly available so that anyone can replicate it.”  Thanks to the FDA for its March 24, 2020 guidance on FDA’s emergency authority to approve this type of equipment!

The Vanderbilt open-source ventilator design may be ready and publicly available soon, but 3D printers should be available now, particularly in urban areas and universities. While 3D printing resources are likely available, healthcare professionals may not be aware of them. Even if there is some general level of awareness, medical professionals are pretty busy and may need help accessing these resources. If your local healthcare professionals need help, consider reaching out and connecting them with your local university’s 3D printing resources, so the university can begin printing the N95 masks the medical professionals need. It may be enough to simply offer the suggestion.

After you’ve helped source your healthcare professionals with PPE, you could try to keep people from flushing wipes. Not only do wipes shut down wastewater treatment plants. Apparently, once people have used up their wipes, they begin flushing t-shirts. This will be a marathon folks.