Posted on September 18, 2017 by Samuel I. Gutter
(With apologies to the late Timothy Leary [“Turn on, tune in, drop out”], who was referring to Electric Kool-Aid, not Electric Vehicles.)
Today, September 18th, is the second anniversary of the first public disclosure of the VW “Defeat Device” scandal. It also marks the beginning of the end of sales of diesel-powered VW cars in the U.S. And while other companies (Chevy, BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover, among them) still offer diesel cars and SUVs, the pickings are a lot slimmer.
One unintended consequence of diesel’s fall from grace is the boost it has provided to electric vehicles. Auto manufacturers must find ways to meet increasingly stringent fuel-economy standards, and for some the efficient diesel was a way to hike their “CAFE” (corporate average fuel economy) numbers. Now, signs are that Tesla, even with the introduction of its less-expensive Model 3, will soon be sharing the EV market with a growing number of competitors. GM and Nissan are expanding their pure EV offerings, and Volvo, Mercedes and Mini are planning to release their own “zero emission vehicles” (ZEVs) over the coming years. Meantime, plug-in electric/gasoline hybrids are becoming common-place, with offerings from Toyota, Cadillac, Volvo, Ford, BMW, and others.
While diesels dominate the line-haul truck market, Cummins and Tesla are both planning to introduce short-haul electric heavy trucks in the near future. And what could be more telling than the announcement by the quintessential American company, Harley-Davidson, that it will start selling its “Livewire” electric motorcycle in five years? Will “Rolling Thunder” become an anachronism?
International pressure to reduce GHGs and urban air pollution is also at play. China, India, England, France and Norway are all considering an outright ban on the sale of fossil-fueled vehicles. And back to VW, as part of its Defeat Device settlement, the company agreed to spend $2 billion over the next 10 years on U.S. infrastructure to support electric vehicles.
Battery prices are coming down and charge stations are going up. And sure, diesels have great torque, but as anyone who has experienced the head-banging g-force of mashing the pedal in an EV will tell you, diesels are best viewed in the rear-view mirror.
Still, many institutional and social barriers remain – proprietary charging technologies, reliance on government subsidies, high costs of electricity with (in some areas) no reduction in nighttime rates, and consumers who are wary of the emerging technology and fear being stranded on the highway with a depleted battery. But while ZEVs and plug-in hybrids are still a fraction of total vehicles sales, they are increasing in numbers and market share. As prices drop and driving range increases, electric vehicles will become more affordable and practical.
Fasten your seatbelt, there might be an EV in your future!